Abrupt recent increases in plastic ingestion by Sable Shearwaters (Ardenna carneipes)

The world is a complex system with rapid changes making it difficult to anticipate further changeand mitigate the impacts. Long‐term ecological studies have contributed disproportionately to ourunderstanding of complex ecosystem responses, including shifts in baseline conditions. While numerous studieshave identified serious health consequences resulting from plastics exposure, plastics research often suffersfrom contradictory messaging. To help address this issue, we use a long‐term plastic ingestion data set forAustralian shearwaters (2010–2026) to describe patterns in total plastics exposure over time (number and massof plastic consumed) as well as two commonly ingested items (plastic bottle caps, plastic resin pellets or“nurdles”). Plastic prevalence within the population (typically 75%–85%) has remained consistent over16 years; however, there has been a substantial and rapid increase in the mass and number of ingested plastics,including lids and pellets, since 2022. We demonstrate that, had this project been shorter in duration (e.g., thefocus of a graduate research project), the conclusions could have been very different, and potentiallyincomplete. Overall, as the study window increases, a more complete picture becomes apparent: a combinationof “good” and “bad” years for the birds, variable patterns in “problematic” items such as lids, and anaccelerating trend in the quantity of plastics ingested by fledglings, particularly in the last 5 years. As plastic‐related pressures increase, understanding rapidly changing systems requires thoughtful consideration of themost relevant analyses and metrics which may differ from those used historically